Probable guerra nuclear entre China y los EE.UU.

> Un artículo en The Atlantic Montly explica por qué es cada vez más probable una guerra nuclear entre los EE.UU. y China.

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The Atlantic Monthly | July/August 2007

Superiority Complex
(page 1 of 4)

Why America’s growing nuclear supremacy may make war with China more likely
by Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press


n the coming years, as China’s economy booms and its armed forces grow, the United States will seek to curb Chinese military power and influence. The U.S.-China rivalry is poised to become the world’s most dangerous strategic relationship. Optimists might contend that the pacifying effects of economic integration will forestall outright hostility and conflict between Washington and Beijing. Others would argue that the strategic competition itself augurs peace and stability between the superpowers, because each country’s ar-senal of nuclear weapons constitutes a security blanket: Just as the danger of mutual nuclear annihilation—or mutual assured destruction (MAD), as it was labeled then—helped prevent war between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, so too will nuclear deterrence cool tensions between the United States and China.

But little about the emerging nuclear balance between the United States and China should lead anyone to assume a similar stabilizing effect. The United States is pursuing capabilities that are rendering MAD obsolete, and the resulting nuclear imbalance of power could dramatically exacerbate America’s rivalry with China.